Shipments of Apple silicone MacBooks will shrink in the first half of next year due to component shortages, a decline in work from domestic demand, and the introduction of a redesigned MacBook Air in the third quarter of 2022, according to Apple analyst Ming-Chi KuoLast note for investors, seen by MacRumors.

macbook pro vs macbook air
From the note:

We anticipate shipping of Apple Silicon processor-based MacBook models to decline by approximately 15% in 1H22 and attribute this to three reasons: 1) component shortages, 2) structural demand shift in the post-COVID era -19, and 3) transition of products between legacy and new models.

According to Kuo, the shortage of components is mainly related to the continuing lack of power management ICs, whose lead times currently extend up to 52 weeks.

This shortage will affect all PC brands, but is said to coincide with the capacity expansion of Unimicron, one of the leading suppliers of integrated circuits in Taiwan and the sole supplier of Apple’s silicon ABF substrate. As a result, Unimicron is expected to aggressively secure non-Apple ABF substrate orders to reduce risk.

MacBook shipments are also expected to be affected by the change in demand structure in the post-COVID-19 era, with the number of people working from home declining and purchasing power declining due to inflation.

Kuo believes a new ‌MacBook Air‌ redesigned with next-generation ‌Apple Silicon‌ technology go into mass production early in the third quarter of 2022, making the second half of next year a product transition period that will impact MacBook orders.

Apple is still expected to launch redesigned 14-inch and 16-inch MacBook Pro models before the end of this year, likely to be announced via a digital event in October or November.

The last macOS Monterey beta references two new built-in screen resolutions which will probably correspond to the upcoming 14-inch and 16-inch MacBook Pro models. The new screen resolutions are listed as “3456 x 2234 Retina” and “3024 x 1964 Retina”, which would represent an increase in pixel density for a sharper image if the displays are the expected sizes.

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